China's Grain Economy

The level and stability of China's grain supply and demand have important effects on both the Chinese national economy and the world grain market. There is increasing interest in whether and how the country can continue to feed itself into the next millennium. In turn this raises concerns about global food security. This book is the first attempt to bring a detailed but accessible theoretical and empirical economic analysis to China's grain supply and demand. Following the construction of rigorous models which take account of the special features of the Chinese grain economy, especially the effects of government policies, it makes projections of grain supply, demand and trade to the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. The most recent policy changes and data up to the mid 1990's are incorporated in the modelling work and projections. This comprehensive work should be of great interest to economists, policy makers, grain trade specialists and more generally to any one interested in rural economic development in transition economies. Contents: List of figures; List of tables; List of abbreviations; Preface; Acknowledgements; Introduction; Government policy and agricultural development; Grain supply and demand in China - a theoretical framework; Grain supply response analysis; Domestic grain demand analysis; Projections and trade implications; Conclusions: legacy, triumph and challenge; Appendices; Bibliography; Index.