Geological Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Exploration

The oil industry seeks better methods of managing financial risk. This book attempts to answer this need by identifying the various uncertainties associated with basin analysis and incorporating this information into probabilistic models of basin evolution in relation to oil accumulation. Oil and gas explorationists, strategic resource economists, and petroleum professionals who deal with scientific uncertainty and risk issues should benefit from the book's systematic treatment of how to quantify the uncertainty associated with a variety of geological, geophysical, and geochemical problems. The origin of uncertainties associated with flexural plate motion models, dynamical models of sediment evolution, thermal models of sediment maturation, hydrocarbon kinetic models, fault models, and models of basinal sediment fill and turbidite flows are detailed in the first section. The subsequent incorporation of model uncertainties into probabilistic models of basic evolution and behaviour constitutes the second half of the book.