Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading A Study in Analytical Economics ; with 44 Tables

Besides analyzing stock markets, the book considers a wide range of speculative markets for various items such as real estate, commodities, postage-stamps, antiquarian books. In particular, it highlights the following regularities: (i) During a speculative episode, the price of expensive items increases more than the price of less expensive items. This is referred to as price multiplier effect.(ii) Price peaks for stocks and most commodities on average follow a well-defined pattern that we call the sharp peak - flat through pattern; in contrast real estate price peaks follow a flat peak pattern.(iii) The stocks whose prices experience the strongest increase during a bull market, better resist during the subsequent bear market, an effect referred to as the resilience pattern. Such regularities pave the way for a mathematical theory of speculation. Being mainly empirical, the book is easy to read and does not require technical prerequisites in finance, economics or mathematics.