International Bank Lending and Country Risk

This book focuses on borrower default. A probit model is used to estimate the probability of default/rescheduling. In most studies of country risk, political factors are omitted due to data inadequacies and difficulties involved in quantifying a number of qualitative variables. The probit model used in this book incorporates political variables, such as the level of democracy and political instability, in assessing country risk. The model also includes all the relevant economic variables. The empirical results suggest that the level of democracy and political instability are important determinants of country risk.