Perception and Misperception in International Politics

Centrality -- The Rate at Which Discrepant Information Is Received -- Beliefs Especially Resistant to Discrepant Information -- Part III: Common Misperceptions -- Chapter Eight: Perceptions of Centralization -- Unity and Planning -- Plans, Not Accidents and Confusion -- One Actor, Not Several -- Special Cases -- Variables Encouraging the Perception of Unity and Planning -- Being Misinformed about One's Own Behavior -- Misinformation about Physical Effects -- Disobedience by Agents -- Causes of Disobedience -- Types of Disobedience -- Consequences of Lack of Awareness of Agents' Behavior -- Consequences of Perceptions of Unity and Planning -- Chapter Nine: Overestimating One's Importance as Influence or Target -- Introduction -- Overestimating One's Effectiveness -- Perceptions of Influence and Turning Points -- Injury and Perceptions of the Other's Autonomy -- Belief that the Other Understands that You Are Not a Threat -- Chapter Ten: The Influence of Desires and Fears on Perceptions -- Wishful Thinking -- Experiments: Lack of Incentives for Accuracy -- Desires or Expectations? -- Direct Impact of Affect -- Experimental Manipulation of Affect -- Judgments of Desirability and Probability -- Other Experiments -- Wishful Thinking in International Relations -- Perceptions of Danger: Vigilance or Defense? -- Avoidance of Perceptions of Extreme Probabilities -- Summary -- Chapter Eleven: Cognitive Dissonance and International Relations -- Cognitive Dissonance Theory -- Cognitive Dissonance and Inertia -- The Magnitude of Dissonance -- The Impact of Spending Resources -- Incentives and Compulsion -- Boomerang Effects -- Summary -- Part IV: In Lieu of Conclusions -- Chapter Twelve: Minimizing Misperception -- Making Assumptions and Predictions Explicit -- Devil's Advocates -- Conversions -- Identities and Missions -- Awareness of Common Misperceptions